BOLD's Seven Scenarios: How the Longevity Dividend Plays Out
BOLD models seven outcome scenarios — from a distressed sale to a blockbuster second exit — to show founders how the Longevity Dividend compares to selling everything today or growing alone with no outside capital. Five of the seven favor staying the course with BOLD over an immediate full sale.
What are the seven scenarios?
Each scenario compares a founder's after-tax position under BOLD against the alternative of selling the whole company today or growing without outside capital.
- Disaster (Year 6): the business deteriorates and sells at a distressed valuation. The founder keeps the cash from the first liquidity event, but a clean sale today would have been better.
- Stagnation (Year 10): growth is flat and the position redeems on defined terms. Like Disaster, an outright sale today would have beaten BOLD after-tax.
- Modest Win (Year 10): growth is roughly half the Phase 1 target — the first scenario where BOLD pulls ahead of the alternatives in present-value terms.
- Plan Hit (Year 10): the two-phase thesis plays out as modeled (about 67% growth in Years 0–3, then ~15%/year); the larger payday sits in the second sale.
- Early Buyback (Years 3–5): the founder buys BOLD out at the fixed floor price while the company is worth more, consolidating ownership before a later second sale — one of the strongest outcomes for the founder.
- Outperformance (Year 10): growth exceeds plan, often via bolt-on acquisitions; the second sale is meaningfully larger and the founder captures the majority of it.
- Home Run (Year 10): sustained high growth produces a second sale that dwarfs the first liquidity event.
What's the honest takeaway from the two downside scenarios?
BOLD doesn't claim to beat a full sale in every case. In the Disaster and Stagnation scenarios, an outright sale today would have out-performed BOLD after-tax. The Longevity Dividend is a bet that the business keeps growing — it isn't a hedge against a business that deteriorates or goes flat.
Why is the Early Buyback scenario one of the strongest outcomes?
Because the buyback price in Years 3–5 is fixed at closing regardless of how much the company has grown by then, a founder who buys BOLD out early captures all of the upside above that floor — then keeps the option of a larger second sale down the road with full ownership restored.
Frequently asked questions
Does BOLD always outperform selling the company today?
No. In the Disaster and Stagnation scenarios, a full sale today would have beaten BOLD after-tax. BOLD is designed for businesses that keep growing.
In which scenario does BOLD first pull ahead of an outright sale?
In the Modest Win scenario — growth at roughly half the Phase 1 target — is the first outcome where BOLD's present value beats the alternatives.
What happens in the Plan Hit scenario?
The two-phase growth thesis plays out as modeled (about 67% EBITDA growth in Years 0–3, then roughly 15% a year), and the larger payday comes in the second sale at Year 10.
Why is Early Buyback one of the strongest outcomes for founders?
Because the Years 3–5 buyback price is fixed at closing, so a founder buying BOLD out while the company is worth more captures all the upside above that fixed floor.